Do early warning signals of tipping points lead to better decisions?
CCR professor Florian Diekert and colleagues have presented a framework for improved resilience strategies for human-nature systems in the Journal of The Royal Society Interface. The concept provides a better understanding of how, when and why early warning systems and indicators can lead to improved decisions – and when they cannot.
The authors have developed a theoretical model that shows how an early warning system that predicts tipping points influences the management of complex socio-ecological systems under stress. The system integrates statistical early warning signals (EWS) into decision-making by using a tipping indicator and a trigger value. While early warning systems improve understanding of tipping risks and enable informed decisions, they still may inadvertently encourage risky behaviour if no warning is issued. This highlights the trade-off between improved information and the potential risk of economic value enhancement. The framework presented in the study improves resilience strategies for human-natural systems by clarifying how early warning systems can be used to better manage abrupt, critical transitions in these systems.
