Floods, droughts, and heatwaves are increasing globally. This is typically attributed to CO₂-driven climate change. In an opinion article for Hydrology and Earth System Science, a team of authors from the Technical 伟德国际_伟德国际1946$娱乐app游戏 of Munich and the Universities of Lancaster and Augsburg, with the participation of ZfK member Prof. Fiener, argue that the focus on CO₂-driven climate change is leading to a shift in focus away from potentially more important drivers of floods and droughts: past land-use changes.

In particular soil sealing, compaction, and drainage, are likely to be more significant for water losses resulting from runoff and leading to flooding and water scarcity. The importance of these processes is generally poorly addressed in modelling because hydrological models rarely reflect lateral fluxes in the atmosphere, on the soil surface, and in the soil. Land use is only considered in coarse categories, and neighbourhood effects and feedback mechanisms are neglected.

However, even if models fail, and landscape experiments cannot be created, there is sufficient evidence that land use is a key driver of the problem and a big part of the solution to mitigate floods, droughts, and heatwaves. Addressing land-use changes is imperative as they persist even with zero net CO₂ emissions, making the world more vulnerable.

A more detailed summary can be found in our ‘ Research and Publications’ section or directly here.

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